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I have seen the future. And as with most things futuristic, it's
fascinating, thrilling and a little disconcerting.
You know about artificial intelligence, powerful computer software that
can duplicate certain feats of human intelligence.
We've been told repeatedly for the last decade or so to ratchet back
our expectations about the potential for artificial intelligence. Yes,
it's AI when the creatures you're shooting at in a video game learn how to
escape your blasts, and when Amazon.com tells you that if you like The
Great Gatsby you're the sort of person who might want to buy a Weber
barbecue grill.
Big deal.
But I've just heard about a new instance of artificial intelligence in
the cultural realm that seems like something out of The Jetsons - or, more
accurately, Sleeper. A company called Polyphonic HMI has engineered a
piece of software called Hit Song Science.
And when Polyphonic HMI plays a piece of music on a computer loaded
with the Hit Song Science software - any piece of music, from any genre -
they say they can tell pretty accurately if that song has the potential to
become a pop hit.
Programmed into the software are the salient acoustical data - the
speeds, rhythms, harmonies, and keys -- of every successful pop song from
the last 30 years.
The company's engineers apparently first realized that their software
really, really worked two years ago, when they analyzed Norah Jones' debut
album ''Come Away With Me''
The Hit Song Science software predicted that eight of the 14 songs on
the album could become hits.
Which was ridiculous. The smart money in the music business was most
definitely not on Norah Jones becoming a big pop star. In addition to her
own complicated, low-key tunes, she sang covers of Hank Williams and
Hoagey Carmichael.
The music was too low-key to be really commercial, too interesting and
sui generis.
But over the next year Norah Jones' debut album sold eight million
copies. She also won five Grammy Awards.
So now, of course, the record companies are getting Polyphonic HMI
religion. Their marketers are using Hit Song Science to help decide which
songs on a particular album to market most energetically, and producers
are using it to help shape works in progress while they're making the
albums.
On the one hand, given that newfangled digital technology, in the form
of free song-downloading software, is a significant source of the music
industry's troubles, it seems poetically just that they're using an even
newer-fangled digital technology as they struggle to survive. On the other
hand, does any sector of the entertainment industry really need
encouragement to produce new product that resembles successful old
product?
We thought we'd see what it was like to take a ride on this high-tech
bandwagon. So we asked some musicians we know if we could submit some of
their songs to Polyphonic HMI for analysis. It cost us $44.99 apiece.
And according to Hit Song Science the song, One Tomorrow, by our
friends The Grocery Concern is exactly average in its hit potential: on a
1 to 10 scale, it scored just over 5. Alas, 7 and up is the surefire hit
zone.
The actual hits in the Hit Song Science database that most closely
resemble One Tomorrow are Angel by Sarah McLachlan and Only Time by Enya.
This is the most interesting part of Hit Song Science to me - finding
those underlying similarities between apparently rather dissimilar music.
According to the New York Times magazine, the HSS software says that the
music of the band U-2 is in fundamental, scientifically measurable ways
similar to the music of Beethoven.
Which, now that I know it, seems weirdly, intuitively right. Or at
least explains why I happen to be a big fan of both Achtung Baby and Ode
to Joy.
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