o you think you've written a hit song? Guess again. Perfect
hooks, killer beats, and powerhouse singing add up to nothing for many
aspiring songwriters -- and for ambitious record executives, who have
historically relied on good ears and gut instinct when it comes to finding
talent. A new company is trying to take some of the guesswork out of the
artwork, with help from science and supercomputers. Hit Song Science
already is generating controversy, with some artists and record-label
insiders saying it only highlights the desperation of a struggling music
industry.
Hit Song Science is a high-tech music analysis system that compares new
songs to a massive database of chart-topping singles and predicts hit
potential based on shared attributes.
In other words, the more your song has in common with Usher's ''U Don't
Have To Call'' or Santana's ''Smooth,'' the better your prospects for
stardom.
All five of the major record companies -- BMG, EMI, Sony, Universal,
and Warner Bros. -- are currently using the service founded last year by
Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI. A modified online version, geared toward
songwriters, was launched this week at www.hitsongscience.com.
''Our technology is to music what X-rays are to medicine,'' says
Polyphonic HMI CEO Mike McCready. ''We help the record industry see their
market and their music in a way they were previously unable to do.''
Hit Song Science technology isolates sonic patterns in a song, ranging
from tempo and chord progressions to melody, harmony, and pitch, and then
compares the song to ''hit clusters'' gleaned from its database of 3 1/2
million songs. The system is updated weekly with new releases in order to
effectively predict a song's potential for success in the current
market.
Ironically, HSS arrives at a moment when those in the music business
face criticism that popular music is increasingly derivative and
homogeneous.
''This is just another reason why the music industry is going down the
tubes,'' says singer-songwriter Ellis Paul. ''We need to think on the
edges, not down the middle.''
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Matching
music
A Spanish software company measures more than a dozen
characteristics of a song and predicts future hits by finding near
mathematical matches among a database of millions of past hits.
 Picking
the hits
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But McCready says his company isn't trying to encourage cookie-cutter
music.
''We hope we can help labels look at music that doesn't sound formulaic
but will still return on their investment,'' he says. ''For example, we
predicted the success of Norah Jones's [Grammy winning] `Don't Know Why.'
Nothing in our data base actually sounded like it. Rather it was the
combinations of patterns and properties that indicated hit
potential.''
But Jesse Harris, the New York songwriter who composed ''Don't Know
Why,'' is skeptical. ''It sounds like a coincidence to me,'' says Harris.
''If they tell the label it's got hit potential and then the label puts
lots of money into it, maybe that's why the song's a success.''
In addition to using HSS to choose album singles, labels are also
utilizing the technology to help screen music submissions from unsigned
artists and short-list those identified by HSS as worthy of a closer
look.
Locally, the small label that's home to pop-rock band Elcodrive paid
$3,000 for a 19-page analysis of songs on its debut indie album, which the
band includes in a detailed submission package when trying to lure major
labels to sign it. (Story, Page C1).
But plenty of industry insiders and observers are worried that Hit Song
Science reduces the artistic process to a stack of mathematical data,
sacrificing creativity in the name of profitability.
''I think it's terrible,'' says Leigh Lust, senior vice president of
A&R at Elektra Records. ''Look at the unique, inspiring artists that
would never pop through if every label adopted this. It will make labels
product-pushers even more than they already are.''
''It's a fascinating tool, and smart companies will use this as
ancillary information,'' counters Jeff Fenster, senior vice president of
A&R for Island/Def Jam Records. ''Especially in the present state of
the industry.''
''But don't live by it,'' he warns. ''There's more involved in how
music connects than what can be read in lines on a graph.''
A Polyphonic album evaluation includes detailed analyses of each song
as well as a numerical grade between 1-10. A rating over 7 means a song
has a strong hit potential. The online service charges $49 per song and
delivers a less in-depth report to songwriters within three days.
Hit Song Science is hardly foolproof. It doesn't factor in such key
elements as a song's lyrics and an artist's personal charisma, or
intangibles like marketing and advertising campaigns.
''There are three requirements for a hit,'' says McCready. ''It has to
sound like a hit to human ears, it has to have the right promotion, and it
must have optimal mathematical patterns. That's where we come in.''
Joan Anderman can be reached at anderman@globe.com
