From: <Guardado por Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | Together in electric dreams
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 19:19:57 +0100
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    <TD vAlign=3Dtop height=3D1><A name=3Dcontent></A><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2>Inside story </FONT><BR>
      <HR noShade SIZE=3D1>
      <FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>Together in =
electric=20
      dreams</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif =
size=3D3>A=20
      computer program is changing the face of the music business by =
allowing=20
      record labels to predict a hit at the click of a mouse. Is this =
the death=20
      of pop as we know it, asks Jo Tatchell, or a new hope for unsigned =
bands=20
      everywhere?</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
      size=3D2><B>Monday January 17, 2005<BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/">The Guardian</A></B> =
<BR><BR></FONT>
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D140 align=3Dright =
border=3D0>
        <TBODY>
        <TR>
          <TD><IMG src=3D"http://image.guardian.co.uk/sp.gif" =
width=3D12></TD>
          <TD><IMG height=3D128 alt=3D"Norah Jones"=20
            =
src=3D"http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Arts_/Pictures/200=
3/01/07/norahjones1.jpg"=20
            width=3D128 border=3D0><BR><FONT =
face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
            size=3D1>Norah Jones ... HSS predicted her success despite =
industry=20
            scepticism<BR>&nbsp;</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2>Martin and Ruth, aka =
Spike, the next=20
      big girl/boy duo (so they hope) add some synth and a new =
background vocal=20
      to the mix. He saves the song and she emails it to Polyphonic =
Human Media=20
      Interface who, within 24 hours, will tell them whether their song =
will be=20
      a hit. When the results arrive they hover over the 20in screen and =
click=20
      on the returned mail. There is a graph, showing a cluster of many =
dots,=20
      like a constellation, and somewhere in the cluster a red spot. The =
spot=20
      marks their song, not quite a bullseye, but still in the throng. =
"It's=20
      scored a seven," Ruth says, scanning down. "We're in. The record =
company=20
      will definitely meet us now." Their future suddenly looks a lot =
rosier.
      <P>Sounds unlikely? It shouldn't. Because, while no one's talking =
about=20
      it, it seems that the whole record industry is already using just =
this=20
      process. From unsigned acts dreaming in their garage, to =
multinationals=20
      such as Sony and Universal, everyone is clandestinely using a new =
and=20
      controversial technology to gain an edge on their competitors. And =
just as=20
      with athletes and performance-enhancing drugs, there is a =
remarkable=20
      reluctance to talk about it. But the secret is out: the record =
biz, once=20
      that bastion of wayward creative flair, is succumbing to the plain =

      old-fashioned science of statistical analysis.
      <P>The magic ingredient set to revolutionise the pop industry is, =
simply,=20
      a piece of software that can "predict" the chance of a track being =
a hit=20
      or a miss. This computerised equivalent of the television =
programmer Juke=20
      Box Jury is known as Hit Song Science (HSS). It has been developed =
by a=20
      Spanish company, Polyphonic HMI, which used decades of experience=20
      developing artificial intelligence technology for the banking and =
telecoms=20
      industries to create a program that analysed the underlying =
mathematical=20
      patterns in music. It isolated and separated 20 aspects of song=20
      construction including melody, harmony, chord progression, beat, =
tempo and=20
      pitch and identifies and maps recurrent patterns in a song, before =

      matching it against a database containing 30 years' worth of =
Billboard hit=20
      singles - 3.5m tunes in all. The program then accords the song a =
score,=20
      which registers, in effect, the likelihood of it being a chart=20
success.</P>
      <DIV id=3DOvertureDivHolder>
      <DIV id=3DOvertureDiv></DIV></DIV>
      <P>Ever since its initial trials, HSS has proven a hit with record =
labels=20
      who sent material to Polyphonic in hope of a second opinion. HSS=20
      confidently predicted Norah Jones's meteoric success (tipping no =
less than=20
      10 songs on her debut album Come Away with Me) well in advance of =
her=20
      chart-topping appearances and in the face of an industry =
unconvinced she=20
      would have any commercial impact. HSS also picked out all the =
Maroon 5=20
      hits, including both This Love and She Will be Loved. Other =
artists,=20
      including Anastacia, J-Lo and Robbie Williams are also rumoured to =
have=20
      asked for the hitmaker's analysis.
      <P>HSS doesn't come cheap. At =804,000 (=A32,800) to score a =
finished CD it's=20
      no surprise that some are viewing it with suspicion. Certainly =
Mike Smith,=20
      A&amp;R director at EMI, believes that HSS as a hit predictor =
merely=20
      reinforces decisions taken by A&amp;Rs, those record company =
employees=20
      given the job of discovering new songs and artists. "A good =
A&amp;R has a=20
      very accurate instinct for what the market needs," he says - and =
the fact=20
      that 95% of hit songs in the past 50 years are high scorers seems =
to back=20
      him up.
      <P>Tom Findlay of Groove Armada puts it into perspective: "HSS is =
a kind=20
      of polling instrument, but a lot of artists already poll stuff as =
they=20
      create it. We do. With [their song] Superstylin' we DJ'd various =
versions=20
      to see what kind of reaction each got live." What human beings may =
lack in=20
      mathematical accuracy they make up for with cultural =
understanding.=20
      Besides, Findlay says, "while there is a rules of construction in =
play -=20
      verse, bridge, chorus and so on - the aim as a musician is to make =
the=20
      musical statement you want to make. The end game is not to get the =

      mathematics right." Though that doesn't mean it shouldn't be a=20
      money-spinner too.
      <P>HSS's crucial design flaw is that it can only look at the past. =
Those=20
      "leftfield", illogical and grassroots-inspired departures from the =
norm,=20
      such as disco or drum and bass, could not have been predicted - =
but they=20
      shift the mainstream and provide the momentum any culture needs to =
remain=20
      fresh. As Smith says, "Art is the one area where people can, and =
should be=20
      able to, make radical statements. Anything that encourages safe,=20
      consensus-driven music should be used with caution."
      <P>So perhaps it isn't so much about what the software does, but =
more=20
      about what it says about the music business. Some of the biggest =
names in=20
      the industry - such as the former head of Sony Records UK, Muff =
Winwood,=20
      and Tommy Mottola (the man who has put more divas on the map than =
anyone -=20
      and in the case of Mariah Carey, married one) - have backed the =
software.=20
      Labels within all of the major corporations are now using the =
software. It=20
      seems only a matter of time before it reaches tipping point to =
become an=20
      industry standard, like Dolby or ProTools.
      <P>Of course, the appeal to record labels is obvious, as it offers =
a=20
      rational underpinning for commercial decisions. With the =
recordings=20
      themselves being the least expensive element of launching an act, =
the=20
      marketing resource being the greatest, and most companies being =
run by=20
      bean counters, we can be certain that this kind of analytical =
software=20
      won't go away.
      <P>But neither is it all bad. Ironic as it seems, with the =
industry=20
      struggling it may be that radical application of HSS could inject =
some=20
      much-needed energy into the business. Mike McCready, CEO of =
Polyphonic,=20
      believes HSS will help executives make braver artist-related =
decisions. A=20
      high HSS rating may, paradoxically, encourage bolder, more unusual =

      signings.
      <P>It's all in the clusters, you see. Hit songs, typically, fall =
into one=20
      of a number of groupings - there are around 50 in the US and 60 in =
the UK=20
      where, traditionally, tastes have been more diverse. Belonging to =
the same=20
      cluster does not mean songs sound the same, though, more that they =
are=20
      mathematically similar. And the analysis has thrown up some very =
unlikely=20
      musical bedfellows: Some U2 songs are in the same cluster as =
Beethoven,=20
      while spandex ultra rocker Van Halen sits right alongside MOR =
piano babe=20
      Vanessa Carlton. It is for this reason that Polyphonic are =
confident their=20
      software won't homogenise our already stratified and similar =
sounding=20
      charts. They are already working with one radio station to expand =
their=20
      playlist without losing audience share by selecting songs with the =
correct=20
      mathematical rhythms. In a world where drearily repetitive =
playlists have=20
      become the norm this could be the answer to an oft-uttered prayer.
      <P>This strategic approach may seal the software's place in =
history.=20
      McCready explains how they are helping a very well known "smooth =
male jazz=20
      crooner" who is finding it difficult to break into the US market. =
The=20
      label's marketing department are promoting him to the Norah Jones=20
      audience. But Polyphonic's analysis has shown that the crooner's =
song=20
      patterns are more similar to Linkin Park, Aerosmith and JayZ. This =
kind of=20
      interpretation offers an unprecedented rationale for appealing to =
a=20
      seemingly unlikely demographic.
      <P>There is also an HSS Basic model on offer to struggling =
musicians. With=20
      a good score, the story goes, you will get a record company to =
take a=20
      second look. While some artists may be lost under this new regime, =
others=20
      will surely be found.
      <P>But its greatest usefulness might be, as Smith says, in =
"helping with=20
      that all too frequent record company problem - a band that has =
written an=20
      album without any hits on it. Using the technology they might be =
able to=20
      write the radio-friendly songs required for the album release." =
For any=20
      artist that relies on success in the singles charts this =
technology=20
      provides a useful barometer of work-in-progress. Ric Wake, =
producer of=20
      international acts such as Jennifer Lopez and Anastacia, has drawn =
the=20
      technology into the heart of the creative process. When you're =
only a few=20
      "mathematical rhythms" away from a great hit this could save =
hours, days,=20
      even weeks of studio grind. At the end of each day relevant tracks =
are=20
      downloaded and feedback is presented the next morning. Supporters =
of the=20
      software argue that it does not detract from the artistic process; =
it is=20
      still the humans who must find the solutions to a low-scoring =
song.
      <P>Ultimately HSS is like focus groups to advertising, or audience =

      research to film - it helps those afraid to be accountable to make =

      decisions. But make no mistake; HSS aims to become a generic term, =
as=20
      Hoover is to vacuum cleaners, and a standard part of the signing =
and=20
      creative process for labels and producers. "'What's the HSS =
score?" should=20
      be in the first line of questions of any band at any stage of =
their=20
      career, says Tracie Reed of HSS. "We promise 100% success rate for =
songs=20
      released rather than the usual 20%. Which makes it a justifiable=20
      investment." And it would have to be in the current cost-cutting =
climate.
      <P>Though it might make the accountants happy and ultimately, even =
the=20
      artists and audiences too, isn't HSS just still a little, well, =
boring?=20
      Isn't half the fun of the pop industry the mistakes, legendary, =
apocryphal=20
      episodes that go into making the best - and worst - of the records =
we=20
      listen to? With HSS would we have had Led Zeppelin's Red Snapper =
escapades=20
      (no singles here), Brian Wilson's lost Smile album, Jeff Buckley =
et al?I=20
      doubt it. But while there's no doubt the romance has gone and =
while it=20
      might feel like a sad mathematical indictment on these most =
indecisive and=20
      creatively fearful of times, you had better get used to HSS. Your=20
      listening DNA is about to be mapped.</FONT><BR><BR =
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      href=3D"http://www.polyphonichmi.com/technology.html">Polyphonic=20
      HMI</A><BR><BR><B>Related special reports</B><BR><A=20
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